Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
